Dmitry and Vladimir: Shall We Dance?
Economist:
May 8th 2008 | MOSCOW
From The Economist print editionA youthful Dmitry Medvedev is inaugurated Russian president, but a stern Vladimir Putin looms large behind him
AFPTHEY arrived separately but walked out together. Like a bridegroom in church, Vladimir Putin arrived for the ceremony first. In front of 2,400 guests, he entered through the Kremlin's oldest and grandest banqueting hall. Only after he had taken his place at the podium, with the patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church in sight, did the television cameras show the “bridal” motorcade arriving. The new president, Dmitry Medvedev, walked in through an ordinary entrance and stood next to Mr Putin. If there was any doubt about seniority in this tandem, Mr Putin then spoke first, about “passing the symbol of state power to Dmitry Medvedev.”
In his own speech, the 42-year-old Mr Medvedev promised to protect the freedoms and rights of Russian citizens. A few minutes later, the two men emerged from the Kremlin—Mr Putin in a long black coat, his protégé in a short black raincoat. “Comrade president”, the head of the presidential guard seemed to address both, as they stood shoulder to shoulder.
The inauguration took place at midday on May 7th. It marked the end of “operation successor”, devised in the depths of the Kremlin. But for all the pomp and theatre, it did not answer one simple question: who is now in charge of Russia? What is clear is that the transition of power has not taken place—or at least, not yet.
Mr Putin respected the letter of the constitution by stepping down from the job. But the red-bound document, carried by a goose-stepping soldier as part of the ceremony, has proved surprisingly accommodating for him. This may be the first time in Russian history that an incumbent president has left office in line with the constitution and at the peak of his popularity; but it is also the first time that he has stayed on as leader. As Dmitry Peskov, Mr Putin's spokesman, puts it, “Medvedev will be the head of state. But of course Putin is not going anywhere. As prime minister, he will be implementing the tasks he set out as president over the past eight years.”
Exactly 24 hours later Mr Putin was confirmed as prime minister. To gain extra legitimacy he turned last December's parliamentary election into a referendum on his own popularity; and has since become the leader (though not a member) of United Russia, the party that dominates parliament. In preparation for his move from the Kremlin, Mr Putin gave himself extra powers, including oversight of regional governors; and transferred more mundane tasks to some ministries, giving himself time to concentrate on strategic tasks.
According to Mr Peskov, as prime minister Mr Putin will use powers that were underused by his predecessors. What is less clear is what precisely Mr Medvedev's role will be—besides presenting a friendlier face to the West—and whether he will be allowed even to make significant appointments of his own.
“In the run-up to the inauguration, Medvedev was subjected to a series of humiliations, conscious or not, by the Kremlin, by Putin, and by part of the elite,” comments Lilia Shevtsova, of the Carnegie Moscow Centre. Two days beforehand, state-controlled television showed Mr Putin chairing his final cabinet meeting. His speech was like a headmaster's pep talk on the last day of term. At the end, in a matter of fact way, he wished Mr Medvedev well. “Thank you,” whispered Mr Medvedev, who occupied only third place in the news bulletin, as chairman of a meeting of trustees of an art museum.
Even Russian businessmen put their money on Mr Putin remaining in charge. Oleg Deripaska, Russia's richest man, told journalists that “his [Medvedev's] role is important. But you need to understand: it is a big challenge to take responsibility. As I understand it, Putin accepted this responsibility to develop his 2020 goals.” An opinion poll confirms that, although many Russians (47%) believe that Mr Medvedev should have real power, only 22% think that he will.
It is entirely possible that Mr Medvedev will remain a faithful minion and be smothered by the embrace of Mr Putin's appointees. But the Kremlin is a powerful fortress. So there is also a chance that Mr Medvedev will try to establish himself as an independent politician. If he is to do it, however, he will need to act fast.
The liberal, westward-looking part of the Russian elite wants to see Mr Medvedev as a beacon of the post-Putin thaw. They will try to exploit any cracks between Mr Putin and Mr Medvedev to steer the country in a more liberal direction. The new president's speeches are certainly encouraging. He talks of the supremacy of law. In his inaugural speech, he said that Russia's success was impossible without economic and civil liberties. Unlike most of the ruling elite, he did not serve in the KGB, which may make him less prone to paranoia and conspiracy theories. On the other hand, he owes everything he has, including the presidency, to Mr Putin.
Even if Mr Medvedev and Mr Putin stay loyal to each other, they may find it hard to contain the fierce rivalry among their apparatchiks. For the past eight years all power has been concentrated in the Kremlin. Any transfer to the government, even under Mr Putin, may seem like exile, not promotion. There is sure to be confusion on servile state television, which has long relied on the Kremlin's directions. “The Russian political system is based on the personification of absolute power and does not tolerate a division of formal and real power,” notes Ms Shevtsova. [read the rest]
posted by: jrtelegraph

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